December 25,UGGs, 2009 Source: Shanghai Securities News on: Tian Li true if effective policies to curb housing prices, is bound to suppress unreasonable expansion of the real estate industry in reducing macroeconomic risk, while also reducing the market on the macro level of profitability the requirement that the capitalization rate decreased. On the other hand, lower prices caused by the decline in real estate revenue, the total income does not affect the stability of the macro, if this part of the resources can be transferred to more efficient industries to if the value of the entire economy will rise.
Tian Li showed that housing prices since the central government's attitude since the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in a wave of large shocks, Stock Index decline of nearly 10% of the stock index is more Crack is one of several checkpoints. Although there is no evidence to link these two things together, but could not find the exact cause of the investors or down very easily lead to such a worry: housing prices will also suppress the stock market do?
This concerns mm mm surface seems to be reasonable: If such prices fell, real estate, corporate earnings bound to reduce the real estate sector's share price will fall, while real estate sector share in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets gravity is so great. The logic looks very simple, very convincing, but experience tells us that the more the surface a simple question, the essence of what we see may not be as Simple.
must first be clear, the stock market reflects the market economy of the future influence, rather than to see the proceeds from the surface. According to asset pricing theory, any economy, whether macro or micro individual overall, its value will depend on two factors: First, the expected return of the economy of the capitalization rate. for the so easy.
Some people think that the so-called capitalization rate is the economy's expected rate of return, the understanding of incomplete pairs, and very easily lead to misunderstanding: It seems that the higher the expected rate of return the better. is not the case,Discount UGG boots, the capitalization rate reflects the is the market economy large and, therefore, have to earn more. this understanding, we can easily understand: the same market conditions, the higher the capitalization rate of enterprises, the lower its market value. For example two of the same size enterprises, a business The capitalization rate is 10%, while the B business capitalization rate is 20%, in the same expected return, the A B value than twice as high.
back to the stock market, if the stock market as the overall macroeconomic The value of the performance, then the index depends only on the macroeconomic level of expected return and the amount of the overall capitalization rate of macroeconomic, therefore, any individual industries in order to affect the stock market must be to influence these two aspects. So,UGG boots clearance, inhibition of Housing How will the pricing policy of these two aspects of it?
from the income point of view, changes in individual industry revenue impact of individual trades only, does not necessarily affect the macro-economic gains, and even economics, but also believe that the macro sense income gains and micro sense there is a big difference,UGG shoes, this difference can be expressed in one word, is the in the other pocket money increased, but this man did not change the total amount of money; now you've moved some money back pocket, or the same total amount of money.
policies to curb housing prices may have to reduce the real estate industry benefits, so people only see the changes in the real estate business income, but did not notice the benefits of what the overall macroeconomic impact. I have said, China's real estate market is not a real sense of the market, the most important in the price formation on the performance. developers often cost as an excuse to raise prices to explain, but the real cause of high prices is also due to policy developers and the existing loopholes: developers first bid, the purchaser, if accepted, then this is the market price; if not accepted, the developer put the house saved up, so when the price was accepted and then traded. prices of basic pricing and market forces does not matter. < br> It is for this reason, prices are set artificially high, the original purchaser that are part of the proceeds to be . Now, the policy of housing prices, then if really effective, but this part of the proceeds in the .
come to talk about the capitalization rate, in fact much more important than the amount of income. said earlier, the market capitalization rate risk based on the economy and For determining the level of macroeconomic risks are also different from the individual industries. In the past we believe the market value of the real estate industry generally high, this is not overvalued, but the market given a reasonable result, because in the real estate industry on the cusp and the industry should not bear the risk. such as the security point of view from the capital, partially offset by pricing the hands of developers, the existing risks, it does not matter even if the prices down, there are several developers rely on equity capital input? In fact, a considerable number of funds from commercial banks, commercial banks have loans pricing (pricing power in the central bank), loans to real estate developers with the price of the loan did not cover the risks can go in this industry So this part of the bank assumed the risk equivalent, which is equivalent to shift the risk of real estate developers. the larger real estate development, the more the risk to pass out, or it can be said that the development of larger, it to the overall macroeconomic body So how will housing prices suppressed the stock market do?
In fact, if truly effective policies to curb housing prices, is bound to suppress unreasonable expansion of the real estate industry in reducing macroeconomic risk, while also reducing the market the requirements of the macro level of profitability, that the capitalization rate decreased. On the other hand, lower prices caused by the decline in real estate income is the total income does not affect the stability of the macro, if this part of the resources can be transferred to more efficient the industry to the case, the value of the entire economy will rise. So, for now look at the facts of the Chinese economy, even if short-term policies to curb housing prices may affect the stock market, but long-term stresses that this policy will would be more beneficial to enhance the value of the stock market.
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